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Historical data at coolstandings.com
At coolstandings.com, we've been simulating the remainder of the baseball season
one million times each day of the regular season since 2005, in order to project
the playoff picture. During that time we've also evaluated
and optimized our model using historical data from retrosheet.org,
which maintains box scores all the way back to 1871.
We've run our model for every day of every regular season
going back to 1903, simulating the remainder of each season 10,000 times instead of our normal
one million we do for the current season.
By running our simulation on the historical data, we can compare the projected results
against the actual final standings for each season, and determine the accuracy of the model.
We've tweaked the algorithm and parameter settings to minimize both the error in
playoff probabilities and the error in expected wins.
Baseball Time Machine
Now for the cool part! We're now publishing our historical projections going back to 1903, with playoff chances
available for every day of every regular season, for all teams. Want to check out
the daily playoff chances for the 1978 Red Sox?
How bout the 1969 Cubs? Or better yet,
the 1908 Cubs? Now that is cool!
But given all this data, it would be nice to easily navigate to the most interesting dates.
Say, when your favorite team had its highest chances of making the playoffs back when
you were a kid.
Top Comebacks
Now, you can do just that! Check out our Top Comebacks page, where we've ranked the most
amazing comebacks by each team's lowest playoff chances prior to their rally. The
greatest comeback belongs to the 1914 Boston Braves, who had less than a 0.1% chance
of making the playoffs back on July 4th, 1914,
when they were in last place and 15 games out of first.
You can also filter the comebacks for just your team, to see which of your favorite playoff
teams battled the toughest odds.
Top Collapses
While the comebacks are fun, nobody ever forgets the chokes. Our Top Collapses page ranks
the most dramatic regular season collapses since 1903, sorted by each team's peak
playoff chances before their fall. The worst collapse is actually surprising - we'll
let you take a look on your own!
And again, you can filter the collapses for just your team, to see which years
your team should have made the playoffs...but failed.
If you have any questions about how the historical numbers are generated, you can check out our Historical FAQ page.
So enjoy the historical data, and please send along any feedback by email
or by posting to our Facebook page!
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