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2010 Tiebreaker Probabilities
- Last updated Sep 9, 12:28 AM Central
What are the chances of a tiebreaker scenario determining the playoff contenders? Here we list the chances of each possible scenario occurring. The probabilities are calculated for both "smart" and "dumb" simulation modes.
2010 "Smart" Tiebreaker Probabilities
American
2-Team H2H*
2-Team Playoff
3-Team Playoff
4-Team Playoff
5-Team Playoff
East
8.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Central
0.2%
3.0%
<0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
West
0.0%
1.8%
<0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Wild card
0.0%
2.5%
0.1%
<0.1%
0.0%
AL Total
8.3%
7.0%
0.1%
<0.1%
0.0%
National
2-Team H2H*
2-Team Playoff
3-Team Playoff
4-Team Playoff
5-Team Playoff
East
7.9%
1.4%
<0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Central
0.6%
2.2%
<0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
West
3.6%
5.7%
0.5%
<0.1%
0.0%
Wild card
0.0%
14.2%
1.6%
0.1%
<0.1%
NL Total
12.1%
20.6%
2.1%
0.1%
<0.1%
Total
19.7%
26.1%
2.2%
0.1%
<0.1%
* H2H implies the tie is settled using head-to-head regular season results or divisional records
2010 "Dumb" Tiebreaker Probabilities
American
2-Team H2H*
2-Team Playoff
3-Team Playoff
4-Team Playoff
5-Team Playoff
East
8.4%
<0.1%
<0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Central
0.2%
3.3%
<0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
West
0.0%
2.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Wild card
0.0%
3.3%
0.1%
<0.1%
0.0%
AL Total
8.6%
8.3%
0.2%
<0.1%
0.0%
National
2-Team H2H*
2-Team Playoff
3-Team Playoff
4-Team Playoff
5-Team Playoff
East
8.5%
1.9%
<0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Central
0.3%
2.3%
<0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
West
4.7%
5.6%
0.6%
<0.1%
0.0%
Wild card
0.0%
15.7%
1.7%
0.1%
<0.1%
NL Total
13.5%
22.2%
2.3%
0.1%
<0.1%
Total
21.3%
28.6%
2.4%
0.1%
<0.1%
* H2H implies the tie is settled using head-to-head regular season results or divisional records
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